|If Euro collapses investors will move into wine|
|Written by Gemma McKenna|
|Monday, 21 May 2012 20:42|
If the Eurozone collapses, there will be a move into wine from investors, but it will be short-lived - that's according to the Financial Times' investment columnist John Authers.
Speaking at the London International Wine Fair's opening conference, Authers warned that as an asset wine's performance would be playing on growth in China or on global inequality. "It puts a great deal of faith in China to pull through," he added.
Given current pressures on the Eurozone, Authers summarised that while a "Grexit [Greek exit from the Euro] would be bad, a total break-up would be an economic disaster for the entire eurozone". He predicted that a fall in output across the Eurozone of between 11 and 15%, "worse than anything seen since they 1930s".
Wine, as a "hard asset", stands to perform well in the current crisis, as investors seek out non-correlated assets [wine is not directly correlated to either bonds or stocks]; assets that get them access to China and "access to the next bubble", predicted Authers.
Citing Joe Roseman's book, SWAG: Alternative Investments for the Coming Decade (Silver, Wine, Arts and Gold), Authers said that wine offers the returns of gold, with less volatility. "Wine is a very attractive addition to a portfolio - it makes a lot of money," he said.
Authers writes about Black Swans - extreme events which have a low probability of happening, such as the break-up of the Euro. "The Euro should never have started when it did, as the countries were too disparate," said Authers.
He said that while Greece pulling out of the Euro was "not news", and the single currency could probably withstand its departure, Spain offered the "greatest cause for concern to bring down the Euro".