Tom Gearing: ‘Looking Back, Forging Ahead’

By Harpers Editorial team

Published: 05 September, 2025

As we head towards the conclusion our Summer Q&A series Tom Gearing, CEO of wine investment firm Cult Wines, considers how his business has fared so far this year and the technology spurring on its progress.

How has business been for you in the first half of 2025 and how do things compare to where you were last year?

From a sales standpoint, we are slightly ahead year on year, although given that 2024 was such a difficult period, it does not yet represent a significant uptick. The first half of 2025 has been challenging, shaped by the uncertainty created by the Trump tariffs and a difficult 2024 En Primeur campaign. Asia showed promising signs in the first quarter, although momentum slowed before picking up again more recently.

From a business perspective, we have focused heavily on cost efficiencies over the past 12–18 months, particularly through technology, and are now seeing the benefits. Our overall profitability has improved significantly compared with last year, which gives us confidence that we are well-positioned for when the market recovers.

Looking at the market more broadly, our recently published Half-Year Report analysed more than 15,000 transactions across 3,000 wines. The main takeaway is that average prices are down around 7% across the board, with many regions still under pressure. However, trading volumes have risen this year, in some areas quite significantly. While headline prices continue to fall, we are encouraged to see more transactions taking place in 2025 compared to 2024. It shows collectors and investors are re-engaging. The greater concern would have been further price declines without any pick-up in activity.

What have been the biggest challenges and headaches so far this year and how have you sought to mitigate those?

This year has presented a number of challenges. From a market perspective, prices have continued to decline, representing a 25-30% drop since the peak in late 2022. That creates difficulties for our investment management business, both in terms of delivering returns and in reassuring clients about the outlook.

Falling prices also encourage more people to sell, which increases supply at a time when liquidity is already under pressure. This can create a downward spiral. We felt the worst of that in 2024, but in 2025, the pace of decline has slowed, and the market has shown signs of stabilisation.

The wider macro environment has added further pressure. High interest rates continue to weigh on demand for luxury goods and discretionary spending. Furthermore, Trump’s tariffs, a weaker US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions have created a difficult backdrop. China has also remained quieter than expected, as its economy recovers, although there have been some recent signs of improvement.

Given the difficulty of delivering returns during a down-market cycle, we have had to be creative and rely heavily on the data and proprietary technology we have developed. One such strategy, which leveraged real-time data, direct market integration via API, and a trading algorithm, delivered the equivalent of 60% annualised returns on realised trades. We piloted this with 40 clients, representing around £3 million in capital, and it was highly successful, especially at a time when traditional buy-and-hold and value-seeking strategies were not performing as expected.

The main challenge has been navigating a correcting market while still ensuring liquidity for clients. In times like this, confidence can waver, so we have focused on radical transparency. Our Half-Year Review is built on real transactional data, not offer-side listings, which helps clients see the true state of the market. Operationally, we have continued to automate through CultX and streamlined client services, which allows us to maintain efficiency even as volumes scale. At the same time, we are developing new tools and analytics to provide better advice and insights, so that clients can make informed decisions in a more difficult environment.

What are you most proud of achieving this year in terms of driving the business forward?

I am most proud of the progress we have made in technology. The stack we have built continues to deliver real value, from efficiency gains to new features and client tools, giving us the capability and capacity to grow in a scalable way.

We have also diversified our revenue streams at a time when the market has been tough. Expanding into the on-trade, we have secured significant accounts in both the US and Europe, which are already delivering strong revenues. That is an important step in broadening our footprint beyond the traditional investment business.

Our data science team has also made major strides. We have taken learnings from the downturn and embedded them into new investment management processes, client tools and features coming soon on CultX. This is why we launched our Half-Year Report, to share insights built on more than £300 million transactions since 2020, giving the market a view no one else can.

CultX itself continues to grow at a pace. August traffic was double that of July, bid value is at record highs, and we now have more than 1,600 wines with a live bid.

Finally, this year we passed £500m of transactions since inception, a milestone that feels particularly meaningful given the business was originally set up out of a bedroom by my brother while I was still at university.

Despite a lacklustre market, we have continued to make gains, deliver improvements and set strong foundations to drive the business forward across our key growth channels.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, what is the biggest cause for concern?

Macro uncertainty remains a concern: global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the dollar all feed into wine pricing and investor sentiment.

My biggest industry-specific concern is whether the broader market can find its footing in time for the key autumn trading season. I am, however, more positive about the final four months of the year. August was quiet, as it always is when the wine market effectively goes on holiday, but we have already seen activity pick up. In some areas, pricing appears to be stabilising, and in others, it is even moving upwards. Our Half-Year Report highlighted growing trade volumes at lower prices, and if this trend continues, equilibrium will be reached, and the market will be in a stronger position.

The real test will come with the autumn releases from La Place. If we see wines launched at realistic pricing, demand should be healthy. But if they are overpriced, it risks repeating the poor reception of Bordeaux En Primeur earlier this year. Autumn really will be the litmus test, and the good news is that buyers are starting to step back in at these new levels.

What single thing could the Government do to best improve trading conditions and the success of the drinks sector?

The changes to wine duty introduced in February have been a headache and have only created extra admin, paperwork, and costs for producers, importers, and merchants. Consumers do not see lower prices, the Treasury will not see meaningful extra revenue, and the trade has to spend more time reconciling marginal changes. For a marketplace like ours, with thousands of wines from dozens of countries, this complexity is needless and counterproductive. It stifles demand and undermines the UK’s position as a global hub for fine wine. Add to that the extra paperwork and fragmented rules that came with leaving the EU, and trading into key European markets like Germany, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and France has become slower and more complex than it should be, stifling opportunities.

The single biggest improvement would be to scrap this system and return to a straightforward, banded duty structure, alongside clearer long-term guidance on rates. That would provide stability, restore confidence and help the sector focus on growth rather than red tape.

What trends are you seeing in the drinks world at the moment, and how do you expect that to change going into the autumn?

The search for value is the dominant theme. Collectors are focusing on underappreciated producers in Italy, Spain, Chile and beyond. At the same time, maturity is being rewarded. Older vintages are performing better than younger releases. As we enter autumn, I expect increased engagement with alternative regions as people diversify their portfolios or ‘digital cellar’ and look for relative value plays.

Any other predictions for the second half of the year?

I am confident we are starting to see some leading indicators that sentiment is shifting. Trading activity has picked up, and while I do not expect a sharp V-shaped recovery, I do think we will see a gradual improvement across the board, which is much needed after such a tough 18–24 months.

Anything that brings buyers back to the market and creates optimism is positive, and that momentum can become self-reinforcing.

Lastly, I expect to see tentative steps back towards recovery in Asia, particularly in China and Hong Kong, which could provide an important boost to global demand.

Quick fire questions…

France, Italy or Spain?

France

Georgia, Greece or UK?

UK. English sparkling is going from strength to strength

‘Normal’ or ‘natural’ wine?

Normal but made by extraordinary producers

Cocktails or straight sippin’ spirits?

Cocktails

Mixologist or mix it at home?

Mix it at home but only when I’m not opening wine

Aperitif preference?